2019 Real Estate Outlook Summary

The Usman Group - February 11, 2019

Hope 2019 is off to a great start for you and your loved ones. We, along with our team, wish you great success, good health, and lots of amazing memories to be created over the remaining 11 or so months and beyond. We took a little bit of risk taking some time off during the holidays as well but overall were able to manage it without any casualties. And now we're looking forward to re-connecting with you over the coming days and share our thoughts on what's happening with the GTA Real Estate in 2019 as well as some other markets in Canada and Internationally. With that, let's begin with how the market has performed in January 2019.

GTA By The Numbers:

January 2019 ended with a somewhat positive note with sales volume in the Greater Toronto Area up by 0.6% compared to this time last year. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up 3.4% compared to December 2018. 

- Average sale price in the GTA for all property types was up 1.7% year-over-year

- Average days on the market hovered around 33

Here're some detailed numbers on the 3 areas that we service within the GTA.

2019 Real Estate Market Outlook Summary​​​​​​​

The following points summarize TREB's outlook for 2019 and results of the Ipsos Home Owners and Home Buyers survey

83,000 sales are forecast to be reported through TREB's MLS® System in 2019 – a moderate increase compared to 77,375 sales in 2018

Slightly tighter market conditions, similar to those observed in the second half of 2018, will support a moderate pace of price growth in 2019. The condominium apartment market segment will continue to be the driver of price growth, whereas average detached home price growth will be below the average growth rate for the market as a whole

Ipsos results confirm that the OSFI-mandated mortgage stress test has negatively impacted affordability. TREB analysis found that, on average, home buyers had to qualify for monthly mortgage payments almost $700 above what they will actually pay. In order to account for the higher qualification standard, intending home buyers have adjusted their preferences, including the type of home they intend on purchasing

The Ipsos Home Buyers Survey found that the share of buyers intending to purchase a detached home is at the lowest level since the fall survey was introduced in 2015. Higher density home types, which have a lower price point on average, have become more popular with intending buyers.

Notwithstanding the brief spike in 2017, new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System receded back to the post-recession norm in 2018, hovering between 155,000 and 156,000. The expectation is that the new listing trend will remain relatively flat in 2019.  The Ipsos Home Owners Survey pointed to a slight dip in listing intentions this year.

The rental market in the GTA is expected to remain tight in 2019, with low vacancies underpinning annual average rates of rent growth in the high single-digits or even low double-digits for one-bedroom and two-bedroom condominium apartments leased through TREB's MLS® System.

What Kept Us Busy In January

While we only had about 20 calendar days available to us in January, we tried to make the most out of them. To reach our goals that we set for 2019, besides helping our active clients, we have been networking extensively. One of Komal's new favourite learning and networking groups is "Mom2Mom Biz Network" that brings together women entrepreneurs in our community. It's always great to meet women business owners and be a part of a healthy environment where everyone feels good to refer business to one another. Recently, Lisa Montenegro of Digital Marketing Experts in Oakville spoke about marketing automation and how this could help us all our businesses grow. Another recent introduction for networking was The Pakistani Professional Forum (PPF) of Canada. We were able to meet many individuals from various professional backgrounds sharing their experiences and knowledge.

We will keep growing and learning throughout the year so we can serve you and all of our clients even better.

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