Our Take On the Market - October Issue

Usman Mahmood - October 13, 2022
September, the unofficial "official start of the fall real estate market" month is now behind us. And despite a lot of the doom and gloom media coverage of the Canadian housing market lately, the month brought some interesting stats for the Greater Toronto market. If you're simply a consumer of the news (i.e. not an active buyer, seller, or a real estate professional) you may be thinking the market must be flooded with new and unsold listings as mortgage interest rates continue to go up which would lead to further declines in the sale prices. So was that the case? 
The Average Sale Price in the Greater Toronto area, inched up from August 2022 by 0.7% and is currently sitting at $1,086,764. Keep in mind that this is the second straight month of a slight month-over-month increase. So we'll wait and see if we're finally witnessing a pattern here. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the month, however, saw a decline of 4.3%. And this YoY gap may widen as home prices from September 2021 to February 2022 simply skyrocketed.
Are we seeing the market flooded with new listings? Well, the new listings are in fact down 16.7% from a year ago which shows that many sellers are simply staying put and likely waiting for the market to settle down a bit.
And what about the number of sales in September? Well, we saw a decline of about 10% from August and 44% from a year ago. And this is the number that does concern many. However, when we assess the data a bit, we know that September's new listings were down significantly from a year ago. Additionally, many of these were simply relists. While there's no denying the activity has been significantly slow compared to this time last year and the market hasn't yet fully settled down in this rising interest rates environment, it is important to note that not many new homes came on the market for the buyers to choose from.
In our last update, we mentioned that "it's just a matter of "when" and not "if" when the Greater Toronto market will start going up again." Are we seeing a pattern with 2 consecutive months of average home sale price going up? Well, one of the ways to gauge the market is to keep a close eye on your specific neighbourhood or area of interest with hyperlocal stats and see what the pattern looks like. With strong overall fundamentals around employment, skilled immigration, and the consumers' desire for home ownership, the Canadian real estate market will continue to stay strong.

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